New modeling suggests that the Omicron epidemic in New Zealand will be significant, with daily hospital admissions reaching up to 800 people in the coming months, putting “significant pressure” on the health system of the country. country.

This is according to modeling published by Te Pūnaha Matatini’s Covid-19 Modeling Aotearoa, which was performed before Omicron was detected in the community on January 23, 2022.

The data also showed that vaccination and booster rates would be crucial for the development of the current community outbreak of Covid-19.

Even with heavy use of reminders and public health measures in place such as mask-wearing, a modeled outbreak that began around February 1, 2022, saw a spike in hospital admissions ranging from 200 to 800 per day.

It also showed peak demand for hospital beds ranging from 800 to 3,300, “depending on assumed transmission rates”.

“The only reason we can even envisage outbreaks totaling hundreds of thousands of cases now is that we have high vaccination rates, which greatly reduces the risk of hospitalization and death,” Professor Michael Plank said. .

“It is difficult to overstate the effectiveness of vaccines in mitigating the health effects of Covid-19.”

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was asked on Tuesday if she expected hospitalization rates to be in the thousands, she said she was ‘cautious about giving any certainty’ about what could arrive in New Zealand.

“[But]what we said was that we have to prepare for both low and high scenarios,” Ardern said.

“Of course, keep in mind that we’ve done a lot of work in the last year around preparing Delta for a lot of cases.”

Plank pointed out that for most people who are up to date on their vaccinations, the risk of becoming seriously ill with Omicron is very low.

“But Omicron still has the potential to overwhelm healthcare systems due to the large number of cases it can cause in a short time.”

The modeling was based on scenarios comparable to recent outbreaks in London, South Australia and New York.

Because Omicron was now circulating in the community, Covid-19 Modeling Aotearoa said the model would be calibrated using country data and rerun when more information on community transmission becomes available.